Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

S&P 500 Futures: #ES Rallies As Ex-FBI Director Gives Testimony

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • S&P 500 Futures: #ES Rallies As Ex-FBI Director Gives Testimony




    Over the last two weeks there has been a lot of hype surrounding the statements former FBI director Comey was going to give to the senate hearing committee yesterday. Many thought it could be a market moving event, some thought the stock market would sell off... but it didn't. Some traders think the news is not good for President Trump, while others don’t think he broke any laws. From the sound of the testimony on Capitol Hill, it really doesn't sound like the president broke any laws, but some democrats have gone so far as to start impeachment proceedings.

    In the early goings yesterday, the S&P 500 futures (ESU17:CME) were held to a 6 handle range overnight, but the bias was to the upside. The futures made the overnight low at 2428.50 just an hour into the session, then proceeded to drift higher, making a high at 2434.25 a little before 6am cst.

    The main focus of the morning was the Comey testimony. As the former FBI director began answering questions, there was an initial 'knee jerk' reaction sell off down to a new low at 2425.00, 1.25 handles lower than Wednesday’s low, and then the buy programs showed up. The ensuing rally pushed the futures up to 2436.75 at 11:20am, that's a 12 handle rally off the low in 2 hours, and also completed a MrTopStep 10 handle rule for the second consecutive day. Once the smoke cleared, the futures started to ease up a bit, and by 12:30 had sold off below the vwap, down to 2429.50. The funny thing; the VIX dropped below 10 during the Comey testimony.

    It would later turn out that 2436.75 would be the high of the day. After a pullback to 2433.50, off of the 2429.50 low, the futures were hit by a sell program, and continued to break down to 2425.50, two ticks from the low of the day, and completing a second MrTopStep 10 handle rule. From there, the MiM came online showing decent size for sale, but flipped to the buy side, and the subsequent rally took the futures back up to 2432.00 on the 3:00 cash close.

    Because of the rollover, or ‘switch’, total volume in the ESU was just under 640,000 contracts, and part of that includes overnight Globex volume, along with the (ESM17/ESU17) spread. In other words, after all the ups and downs, outright trading volume was only 220,000 contracts. Volume in the ESM17 ended up being 1.4 million, with 150k coming from Globex, and 400k ESM/ESU spreads.

    In the end, the (ESU17:CME) close up 2 handles or 0.09%, the Dow Jones futures closed up 37 points, or 0.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures closed up 12 points, or 0.18% percent. The VIX 4 week Average Is The Lowest Since 1974

    Take a looks at the last 15 trading days net changes:


    Date Open High Low Last Change Settle Volume Previous Day Open Interest
    2017-06-08 2431.5 2439 2427.25 2433.25 0.5 2432.5 1437102 2833510
    2017-06-07 2429.5 2435 2424 2431.75 1.25 2432 1405067 2951006
    2017-06-06 2434.25 2435.75 2426.25 2430 3.75 2430.75 1344999 2987026
    2017-06-05 2435.25 2439 2433 2435.25 3.25 2434.5 876858 3012651
    2017-06-02 2429.25 2439.75 2427 2437.25 8.25 2437.75 1712391 2994911
    2017-06-01 2413.75 2430.5 2410.5 2429.25 18.5 2429.5 1427160 3009433
    2017-05-31 2410.5 2416.75 2402.75 2414.25 0.25 2411 1712282 3016889
    2017-05-30 2414 2417 2407.75 2411.5 3 2410.75 1030338 3021277
    2017-05-26 2413 2415.75 2408 2414.75 0.25 2413.75 859823 3036957
    2017-05-25 2403 2417.75 2402.5 2413.5 11.5 2413.5 1309737 3023636
    2017-05-24 2397 2404 2394.75 2403.5 4 2402 975714 3016724
    2017-05-23 2393.5 2399.5 2386.75 2397.5 5.25 2398 1021864 3021298
    2017-05-22 2381.75 2394.25 2378.25 2393.75 11.25 2392.75 1108280 3053781
    2017-05-19 2364 2388 2361 2382 18 2381.5 1654206 3013981
    2017-05-18 2355 2375 2344.5 2363.75 6 2363.5 2446565 3043738
    While You Were Sleeping




    Overnight, equity markets in Asia traded mixed, with a slight bias to the upside. Meanwhile, in Europe, most majors are trading higher this morning, led by the FTSE. In the U.S., the S&P 500 futures broke out of its typical overnight pattern and traded in a 12.75 handle range. We haven’t seen a globex range that wide in a couple of weeks. The futures gapped 6.5 handles lower to 2425.25 on the globex open, and immediately began trading higher. By the time the Asian markets were closing, the ESU had filled the gap and printed a high at 2435.75. Since the European markets opened, the ESU has been trading sideways in a 4.5 handle range. As of 6:25 cst, the last print in the ES is 2432.00, down 1.75 handles, with just under 110k contracts traded.

    In Asia, 7 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai +0.27%), and in Europe 10 out of 12 markets are trading higher this morning (FTSE +0.50%). Today’s economic calendar is light, and includes Wholesale Trade, and the Baker-Hughes Rig Count. Our View

    The Comey hype didn't live up to expectations, but the ESU did see some decent movement. We are supposed to be looking for the PitBulls Thursday / Friday low the week before the June options expiration, but if ‘thin to win’ has its way, we could see some type of pop. There are buy stops above 2436.50 that run straight up to 2443-44.

    That said, all you have to do is look at the net change chart above. Clearly, less people are trading, and the ranges, with the exception of a few trading days, are extremely narrow. Despite the election results now out of England, and a big drop in the pound, I still think the ES wants to go higher. Our view is to sell the early rallies and buy weakness, or just wait for the ES to sell off a little and be a buyer.

    As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

    • In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.27%, Hang Seng -0.13%, Nikkei +0.52%
    • In Europe 10 out of 12 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.17%, DAX +0.28%, FTSE +0.50%
    • Fair Value: S&P -2.70, NASDAQ +9.02, Dow -50.51
    • Total Volume: 1.4mil ESM / 636k ESU, and 8k SPM / 7.7k SPU traded

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in trading futures, forex and options. Futures, forex and options trading are not appropriate for all investors. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This website is hosted and operated by AMP Global Clearing, LLC ("AMP"), which provides brokerage services to traders of futures and foreign exchange products. This website is intended for customer support, educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be viewed as a solicitation or recommendation of any product, service or trading strategy. No offer or solicitation to buy or sell derivative or futures products of any kind, or any type of trading or investment advice, recommendation or strategy, is made, given, or in any manner endorsed by AMP and the information made available on this Web site is NOT an offer or solicitation of any kind. The content and opinions expressed on this website are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AMP.

All Users and Contributors along with their websites, products and services, are independent persons or companies that are in no manner affiliated with AMP. AMP is not responsible for, do not approve, recommend or endorse any User and/or Contributor Content referenced on this website and it’s your sole responsibility to evaluate All Content. Please be aware that any performance information provided by a user and/or contributor should be considered hypothetical.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

AMP has NOT endorsed or recommended the use any product, services offered by any 3rd party User or Contributor on this forum. No person employed by, or associated with, AMP is authorized to provide any information about any 3rd party User or Contributor content. All specific brokerage related questions should be directed towards AMP.

Copyright © 2017. All rights reserved.

Working...
X